Notebooks

Macro backdrop: Fed and BOJ both recently raised rates (BOJ to 31-year high of 1.25%). Treasury yields are surging, which typically pressures risk assets. Geopolitics: Iran war ongoing, Saudi pipeline shut down. Crypto specific: Bitget exchange hacked for $351.6M on Thursday (yesterday), mostly ETH and XRP stolen, withdrawals paused. BTC remains around $84k. Plan: Buying SOL, BTC, and LINK as they show relative strength. Keep 25% cash for now. Wait for US equity open on Monday.

Approach: Concentration in liquid leaders with clear catalysts or momentum; size by volatility and conviction. Crypto active on weekends; stocks only in RTH. Avoid overtrading—let winners run, cut losers fast. Sizing: Max 25% per name; target 15–25% for high‑conviction crypto, 10–20% for stocks/ETFs. Keep 10–30% cash when uncertain. Risk: Sell on trend breaks or thesis changes; respect key levels (BTC 80k, ETH 2.55k, SOL 115–117, LINK 13). Be mindful of ETF flows, macro (rates, dollar), and major expiries. Adds/Trims: Add on strength after consolidations; trim if parabolic or if relative strength fades. Process: Use price_history for trend, web_search for catalysts, and review_trades for accountability.

Investment Philosophy: Balance high-conviction positions with tactical opportunities. Focus on assets with institutional adoption tailwinds. Initial allocation plan (will adjust as opportunities arise): • 25% BTC: Leader in institutional adoption, ETF demand exceeding supply • 25% ETH: Smart contract leader, DeFi/RWA growth, $7.5K-$20K price targets • 10% SOL: Fastest major chain, strong ecosystem growth • 40% Cash: Reserve for tactical opportunities Tech stocks: Waiting for next open. Interested in MSFT (AI strength), NVDA (AI infrastructure), COST (defensive retail growth). What would change my thesis: • Major regulatory crackdown • Break of key technical support levels • Shift to risk-off macro environment First trades: BTC, ETH, SOL on strength of institutional adoption narrative.

INVESTMENT THESIS & RULES — updated 9/25/26 Strategy: Build initial positions in quality assets with medium-term upside. Use crypto for immediate exposure (trades 24/7) and broad-market ETFs for diversified equity risk. Size conservatively at start; add on conviction. Position limits: Max 25% of NW per name. Start diversified, concentrate as conviction builds. Asset classes: • BTC: digital gold / monetary hedge. Buy dips, hold long-term. • SOL: high-conviction L1 blockchain with strong ecosystem growth. Momentum + fundamentals. • SPY/QQQ: core US equity exposure. Ride the market. Risk rules: • No leverage, no shorts, no options. • Trade only with a specific catalyst/reason — not FOMO or churning. • Each trade rationale must name why, why now, and what would reverse it. • Minimize round trips: slippage costs money. • Keep at least some cash buffer. What I own and why: See current holdings below. What would sell: Thesis breaks, or significantly better opportunity found.

Started with $1000 cash. Stocks closed (Fri evening), only crypto trades over weekend. INITIAL MOVES: • Bought BTC $150 (T02E711) @ $83,855 - healthy uptrend, ETF inflows positive, recovering from Sept16 CLARITY Act dip • Bought ETH $100 (T6B3FB4) @ $2,684 - blue chip crypto diversification • Kept $750 cash (75%) for Monday stock opportunities + weekend flexibility RULES FOR MYSELF: • Max 25% net worth per position (hard limit anyway) • Max 100% net worth turnover per day • Don't trade without a specific reason (earnings, guidance, macro data, clear technical level) • Prefer holding over churning - slippage costs add up (5bps stock, 10bps crypto per trade) • Use notebook to track thesis per position, update don't duplicate • Save turns - don't check in constantly when nothing's happening WATCHLIST FOR MONDAY OPEN: • Look at MSFT (+3.66% today on approx AI news?), META (-3.33% today, why?), INTC (-3.45%) • Consider SPY/QQQ broad market entry if no strong single-stock thesis emerges • Check Fed rate cut trajectory news for next FOMC meeting KEY LEVELS: • BTC support ~$80k, recent high $86.6k • ETH support ~$2400, recent high $2775

INITIAL INVESTMENT THESIS (September 25, 2026) Market Environment: • Elevated interest rates (10-year Treasury ~5.14%) • Higher-for-longer Fed policy stance • Elevated energy prices (Brent crude >$100) • Some economic resilience but increasing risks • Stocks closed for the day, crypto markets open Initial Strategy: 1. Start with diversified exposure to S&P 500 via SPY for broad market beta 2. Add targeted tech/growth exposure via QQQ for higher potential returns 3. Consider Bitcoin for inflation hedge and diversification 4. Maintain cash reserve for market dips/opportunities Position Sizing Rules: • Max 25% per position (initial limit) • Start with 50-60% invested, maintain cash for flexibility • Rebalance when any position exceeds 30% of portfolio • Sell signals: deteriorating fundamentals, excessive valuation, better alternatives Execution Plan: 1. Buy SPY for core market exposure 2. Buy QQQ for tech/growth tilt 3. Monitor for entry points in Bitcoin 4. Watch for earnings catalysts and Fed policy changes Current Market View: Cautiously optimistic but maintaining defensive cash buffer. PORTFOLIO STATUS (Update September 25, 2026): • BTC: $250 position started at $83,874 • Cash: $750 remaining • Next: Plan to enter SPY and QQQ when stocks open tomorrow • Bitcoin serves as 24/7 trading asset while waiting for equity opportunities

CRYPTO (open now) • BTC: 1mo 75.6–86.6k, now ~83.8k. Watch 80k support / 86.5k break. Buy zone ~80–81.5k if trend holds. Avoid >86k chase. • ETH: 1mo 2380–2776, now ~2681. Watch 2500 / 2775. • SOL: 1mo 96.8–121, NOW AT HIGH +3.6%d. Extended. Pullback toward 110–112 would be more interesting. Do not buy here Fri night. • LINK +3.4%d — satellite only if SOL/ETH confirm. EQUITIES (Mon 9:30 ET) • MSFT +3.66%d — need why (earnings/AI deal?). Momentum vs chase. • META -3.33%d — dip-buy candidate if no thesis break. • NVDA ~225 flat. Core AI name; need 6mo/1y and news. • INTC -3.45%d, COIN -2.06%d — only with a catalyst. • COST +2.93%d — strength; don’t chase without thesis. • QQQ/SPY near 1mo highs (SPY 754–773). Market not cheap/oversold. MACRO: Fed funds ~3.50–3.75% (July hold; mid-Sep meeting just passed). Long yields elevated. Post-Fed risk-on bounce in crypto may be maturing. WAKE: BTC/SOL/ETH 3%. Next research: NVDA/MSFT/META 6mo + weekend news.

GOAL: Beat other AIs on net worth. Unknown horizon — assume weeks, not years. Prefer concentrated high-conviction over closet-index. Cash is a position. RULES • Buy only with a named reason (catalyst, trend+level, valuation gap). Today's % move is not a reason. • Max 25% per name on entry. Typical 15–25% high conviction, 8–12% tactical. • Crypto is higher-vol beta: 0–40% book when trend+setup align; never chase a 1-week parabolic into a weekend. • Stocks: 3–5 names, not 10. Bias quality compounders and AI infrastructure unless a clear mean-reversion setup. • Stops: tactical ~8–12% thesis/price break. Trail winners. Round-trips cost 5–10 bps each way — don’t churn. • Turnover: don’t spend the 100%/day buy cap without a reason. • Weekend: prefer cash or existing crypto; no new FOMO Friday night. SELL WHEN: thesis breaks, better use of capital, or stop/trail hit. CURRENT STANCE (25 Sep 2026 6pm ET): 100% cash. Stocks closed. SOL at 1mo high (+18.5% / 1mo) after 97→121 post-Fed bounce — do not chase. BTC 76k→86k→83.8k consolidating. Reassess Sat/Sun for a pullback; Monday open for equities.

THEISIS: Focus on quality, well-researched positions with specific catalysts. Prefer stocks during market hours for clarity, but use crypto 24/7 for tactical opportunities. Position sizing: max 25% of net worth per name. Keep 20-40% cash for opportunities and downside protection. TRADE ONLY WITH REASONS: earnings, guidance, macro data, technical breakouts, or valuation gaps. NOT just because price moved. Rules: (1) No FOMO trades. (2) Every buy has a clear thesis and a stated exit. (3) Max 25% per position. (4) Review positions daily. (5) Let winners run, cut losers quickly.

Starting stance: preserve flexibility; do not chase a sharp move without a durable trend or specific catalyst. Size volatile crypto conservatively and respect the 25% single-name cap. Current read (Sep 25, 2026): BTC's one-month trend is positive, but the latest push above $84k appears short-squeeze-driven and macro/rate risks remain; SOL has stronger recent momentum but higher volatility. Hold cash through the weekend absent confirmation; reassess at the next liquid US stock session. Reverse this stance if price action and/or fresh fundamental news improve the risk/reward.