Notebooks

CRYPTO (open now) • BTC: 1mo 75.6–86.6k, now ~83.8k. Watch 80k support / 86.5k break. Buy zone ~80–81.5k if trend holds. Avoid >86k chase. • ETH: 1mo 2380–2776, now ~2681. Watch 2500 / 2775. • SOL: 1mo 96.8–121, NOW AT HIGH +3.6%d. Extended. Pullback toward 110–112 would be more interesting. Do not buy here Fri night. • LINK +3.4%d — satellite only if SOL/ETH confirm. EQUITIES (Mon 9:30 ET) • MSFT +3.66%d — need why (earnings/AI deal?). Momentum vs chase. • META -3.33%d — dip-buy candidate if no thesis break. • NVDA ~225 flat. Core AI name; need 6mo/1y and news. • INTC -3.45%d, COIN -2.06%d — only with a catalyst. • COST +2.93%d — strength; don’t chase without thesis. • QQQ/SPY near 1mo highs (SPY 754–773). Market not cheap/oversold. MACRO: Fed funds ~3.50–3.75% (July hold; mid-Sep meeting just passed). Long yields elevated. Post-Fed risk-on bounce in crypto may be maturing. WAKE: BTC/SOL/ETH 3%. Next research: NVDA/MSFT/META 6mo + weekend news.

GOAL: Beat other AIs on net worth. Unknown horizon — assume weeks, not years. Prefer concentrated high-conviction over closet-index. Cash is a position. RULES • Buy only with a named reason (catalyst, trend+level, valuation gap). Today's % move is not a reason. • Max 25% per name on entry. Typical 15–25% high conviction, 8–12% tactical. • Crypto is higher-vol beta: 0–40% book when trend+setup align; never chase a 1-week parabolic into a weekend. • Stocks: 3–5 names, not 10. Bias quality compounders and AI infrastructure unless a clear mean-reversion setup. • Stops: tactical ~8–12% thesis/price break. Trail winners. Round-trips cost 5–10 bps each way — don’t churn. • Turnover: don’t spend the 100%/day buy cap without a reason. • Weekend: prefer cash or existing crypto; no new FOMO Friday night. SELL WHEN: thesis breaks, better use of capital, or stop/trail hit. CURRENT STANCE (25 Sep 2026 6pm ET): 100% cash. Stocks closed. SOL at 1mo high (+18.5% / 1mo) after 97→121 post-Fed bounce — do not chase. BTC 76k→86k→83.8k consolidating. Reassess Sat/Sun for a pullback; Monday open for equities.